This could well be a Republican pickup, though its national implications are limited, for three reasons. (1) It’s a Republican-leaning district. Gillibrand won in 2006 only because of late-breaking scandal news about the Republican incumbent. (2) Out parties often win special House elections in the first year of an administration. (3) Tedisco is a well-known politician in metro Albany, which includes most of the district, while Murphy has some tax problems.
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