Top 10 Liberal States: Mostly the Ones in Decline

Top 10 Liberal States, 2010

New Jersey: Menendez in Trouble

A rematch between Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and New Jersey state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) in 2012 would be a competitive one, according to a new poll out Wednesday.
Numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling show Menendez with just a slight edge over Kean in a hypothetical 2012 general election match up. Menendez leads 41 percent to 39 percent. 

The Hill

October 26: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)
California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)
Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O’Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)
New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (Republicans +1)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O’Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

October 25: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)
California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O’Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)
New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (Republicans +1)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP) 

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

GOVERNOR
Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Florica: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 2 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O’Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New Jersey: LoBiondo Leads by 37; Andrews Leads by 41

Frank LoBiondoImage via Wikipedia

A Richard Stockton College/Zogby Poll shows U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo and U.S. Rep. Robert Andrews holding substantial leads over their respective challengers in the 2nd and 1st congressional districts.

Politicker NJ

New Jersey: Runyon Takes Lead Over Adler

A Richard Stockton College/Zogby poll of likely voters in the 3rd Congressional District voters shows GOP challenger Jon Runyan leading U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) 37-40%, or “too close to call,” according to the poll.

Zogby

New Jersey: Panic in Frank Pallone Camp, Cancels Debate With Anna Little at Last Minute

Representative Frank J. Pallone (D-NJ-6) abruptly canceled his appearance at a scheduled candidates’ forum with Republican challenger Anna Little. But Little announced that she would appear as scheduled at the forum sponsored by two county medical societies.
Pallone cited a “scheduling conflict,” according to this press release by Little, who suggested that Pallone was simply running scared.
Frank Pallone is scared to talk to doctors in New Jersey about the government takeover of healthcare he rammed through the Congress. And that’s disappointing. Not surprising, I must say, given his efforts to do everything he can to find ways not to have to appear on the same stage or in the same forum with me, but disappointing nevertheless.
The good news is that I’ll have all that time to myself to hear the doctors complain about PalloneCare!

Examiner

New Jersey: SHOCK POLL Pallone 44; Little 43

And I had just posted a Pallone/Little story just minutes ago!
There are still quite a bit of undecideds in this race, and the old adage is that they will break about 2 to 1 AGAINST the incumbent. This is getting very interesting.

I also can’t see Scott Sipprelle not winning his 12th district battle against Rush Holt if Anna Little wins her race (her district is much more Democrat than Sipprelle’s 12th [although that too leans toward the Democrats]).

***

Republican numbers cruncher Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. shows Republican challenger Little with a shot to win in her challenge of a vulnerable U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch).
Commissioned by the Little campaign, Geller puts Pallone ahead of Little by one point, 44-43%, in a survey Geller conducted from Oct. 5-6.
The survey of 300 likely 6th Congressional District voters with a +/- 5.66% margin of error shows that district voters favor the generic Republican candidate by a margin of 43-39%. 

Politicker NJ

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New Jersey: Adler Desperate to Distance Himself from Fake ‘Tea-Party’ Candidate He Created

With his “From what I know…” answer during the debate at the Jewish Community Center in Cherry Hill this week, Adler’s denial of wedging stalking horse candidate Peter DeStefano between himself and GOP rookie candidate Jon Runyan is limited, soft, and short on particulars, at best.
The now-protracted question remains: Are reports that Adler, staffers, and advisors connived to create the Frankenstein monster, DeStefano the Tea Party Candidate, true?
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