Democrats Lack Enthusiasm for Voting

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Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ — In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic. This is in sharp contrast to 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2004, when the great majority of Democrats expressed heightened enthusiasm about voting.

Pennsylvania May Do Away With Winner-Takes-All in Electoral College

Pileggi says he wants to change that “winner-take-all system,” and guide the system used in Maine and Nebraska through Pennsylvania’s Legislature this fall, before the 2012 presidential votes are cast. Republicans in both chambers say the bill has a strong chance of moving fast enough to be approved for next year.

“The system we have now, is a winner-take-all system, the system I am proposing would more precisely conform the electoral college to the popular vote and it would make the presidential election more relevant across the state, give voters more of a sense that they are active participants in the presidential election.”

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Nevada: Sandoval Leads Governor’s Race

Trouble is we don’t know if he’s running.

According to the results of the poll conducted by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., 17 percent of Republican voters would support Gibbons in the primary, well behind 33 percent for Sandoval.
In a Democratic primary that includes Goodman, Reid got support from 13 percent of voters, trailing Buckley’s 25 percent and Goodman’s 34 percent.
Sandoval was the respondents’ favorite candidate in every general election scenario, leading Goodman by 7 percentage points, Buckley by 8 and Reid by 17.

Las Vegas Review Journal

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Generic Congressional Ballot Remains Close This Week

Date Dem GOP
03-01-09 41% 39%
02-22-09 41% 37%
02-15-09 41% 39%
02-08-09 40% 39%
02-01-09 42% 38%
01-25-09 42% 35%
01-18-09 42% 35%
01-11-09 42% 36%
12-31-08 43% 37%
12-21-08 44% 36%
12-14-08 42% 37%
12-07-08 42% 38%
11-30-08 43% 40%
11-23-08 44% 39%
11-16-08 42% 38%
11-09-08 43% 41%
11-02-08 47% 41%
10-26-08 47% 40%
10-19-08 45% 39%
10-12-08 46% 38%
10-05-08 45% 37%
09-28-08 46% 37%
09-21-08 45% 38%
09-14-08 44% 38%
09-07-08 45% 37%
08-31-08 46% 36%
08-24-08 46% 35%
08-17-08 46% 36%
08-10-08 45% 37%
08-03-08 46% 36%
07-27-08 47% 34%
07-20-08 45% 36%
07-13-08 46% 36%
07-06-08 47% 34%
06-29-08 47% 35%
06-22-08 47% 34%
06-15-08 48% 34%
06-08-08 47% 34%
05-22-08 47% 39%
04-29-08 46% 41%
04-06-08 43% 37%
03-13-08 44% 40%
02-14-08 44% 40%
01-15-08 43% 38%
12-09-07 46% 36%
11-04-07 46% 35%
10-04-07 48% 36%
09-04-07 50% 32%
08-01-07 47% 37%
07-17-07 46% 37%
06-21-07 46% 34%
05-31-07 45% 38%
05-03-07 47% 36%
04-10-07 45% 35%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

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Even Washington Post Admits Palins Saved McCain From Worse Loss

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Love her or loathe her, the data appear somewhere close to conclusive that Palin did little to help — and, in fact, did some to hurt — McCain’s attempts to reach out to independents and Democrats. But just because Palin doesn’t appear to have helped McCain move to the middle doesn’t mean that picking her was the wrong move. Remember where McCain found himself this past summer. He had won the Republican nomination, but the GOP base clearly felt little buy-in into his campaign. A slew of national polls reflected that energy gap, with Democrats revved up about the election and their candidate and Republicans somewhere between tepid and glum. Enter Palin, who was embraced with a bear hug by the party’s conservative base. All of a sudden, cultural conservatives were thrilled at the chance to put “one of their own” in the White House. In fact, of the 60 percent of voters who told exit pollsters that McCain’s choice of Palin was a “factor” in their final decision, the Arizona senator won 56 percent to 43 percent. For skittish conservatives looking for more evidence that McCain understood their needs and concerns, Palin did the trick. It’s hard to imagine conservatives rallying to McCain — even to the relatively limited extent that they did — without Palin on the ticket. And without the base, McCain’s loss could have been far worse.
Source: Washington Post

Electoral Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

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1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)…

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Saturday, November 1, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 299, Obama 239

addthis_url=”; addthis_title=”; addthis_pub=’migulski’;

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)…

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
today, Thursday, October 30, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

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More battleground states than ever. This is getting pretty exciting. Michigan has changed from solid Obama to leans Obama. Montana, North Dakota and Georgia have changed from solid McCain to leans McCain. The final Electoral Map, the one actually decided by the voters, has the potential to look drastically different from the map created in the last two presidential elections. Also, this means that a lot more people now live in a state that has a potential to go either way, which means their vote might actually matter (Unlike my home state of New Jersey).

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)…

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Reason Why the Polls Are So Contradictory?

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This is why I would urge caution when interpreting all this polling data. We’re talking about disagreements among good pollsters. I take all of these firms seriously whenever they produce new numbers. They are disagreeing with one another in ways that can’t be chalked up to statistical “noise.” That gives me great pause.
Real Clear Politics

Electoral College Projection: McCain/Palin 278, Obama/Biden 260

addthis_url=”; addthis_title=”; addthis_pub=’migulski’;

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)…

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 27, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.