October 28: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)
California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)
Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O’Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)
David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Illinois

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)
Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)



Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +1)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Mike Michaud defeats Jason Levesque by 14 pts (HOLD)

Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)
New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7) [GOP weakness at top 3 positions on ticket make things hard for those lower on the ticket]

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)
New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio 


Oklahoma


Oregon

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)
Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)
Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)



Texas

Utah

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O’Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

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