Obama is seen as having a great deal of difficulty in closing the deal in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. McCain would be likely to pick at least one of these states off if the election were held today, due to the undecideds breaking heavily in his favor and the Bradley Effect. My gut would say Wisconsin, but I will go with Minnesota for now because the numbers seem a little better there. I still believe Obama is winning in Iowa, just not by as much as the slanted polls are claiming—unless McCain can pull even in the polls. Then you are looking at a surprise Trumanesque landslide.