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The survey shows Cravaack trailing Oberstar just three points, 42/45, within the poll’s margin of error. Furthermore, the 45% showing for a long-term and heretofore popular incumbent is a big red flag for Democrats. Oberstar has been a fixture in the Iron Range for decades and a towering political figure. A failure to get to 50% four weeks before the election is a sign that those who know him best have lost confidence in his ability to represent them properly. Even more stunning, Cravaack has an outright majority among those who show the highest enthusiasm for this election (52%).