Everyone had assumed a massive tidal wave of left-wing Obama fanatics would give him an insurmountable lead in the early voting.
That didn’t happen.
People are still assuming Obama will have a larger turnout than McCain/Palin…just not as much as they thought. I still think it is likely that the turnout will be about equal, perhaps Dems +2, in which case Obama probably loses.
Campaign Spot has a nice article about how the conservative base is probably being undercounted by the media:
And if the GOP base is fired up and showing up in places like Texas and South Carolina, is there some reason it wouldn’t show up in Indiana, North Carolina or Virginia? I suppose it’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Whole Story at Campaign Spot