Iowa Surprisingly Competitive

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Some GOP observers with experience in Iowa and national politics are dismayed that the campaign is spending so much time here. Others say McCain must see something competitive for the ticket that few others do, in a state where polls show Democrat Barack Obama leading.

“I am puzzled by the decision because it seems to me the most precious resource presidential and vice presidential candidates have is their time,” said Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party and top adviser to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. “And their appearances in Iowa, while perhaps inspirational to the base, might be better spent in other states now.
Des Moines Register

The reason is that the polls in Iowa, just like in the rest of the country, are drastically oversampling Democrats. This ensures that Obama will appear to have a pretty big lead even before the poll has been taken. McCain does appear to be down in Iowa, but only by a margin in the low single digits.

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