More battleground states than ever. This is getting pretty exciting. Michigan has changed from solid Obama to leans Obama. Montana, North Dakota and Georgia have changed from solid McCain to leans McCain. The final Electoral Map, the one actually decided by the voters, has the potential to look drastically different from the map created in the last two presidential elections. Also, this means that a lot more people now live in a state that has a potential to go either way, which means their vote might actually matter (Unlike my home state of New Jersey).
1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)…
Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008: