October 30: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)
California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)
Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O’Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD) 
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski defeats Eric Wargotz by 18 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: Rob Portman defeats Lee Fisher by 22 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)
Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeatS Len Britton by 24 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)
David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut (Republicans + 2)
Connecticut 4th: Dan Debicella defeats Jim Himes by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut 5th: Sam Caligiuri defeats Chris Murphy by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia (Republicans +2)
Georgia 2nd: Mike Keown defeats Sanford Bishop by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Georgia 8th: Austin Scott defeats Jim Marshall by 21 pts (PICKUP)
Georgia 12th: John Barrow defeats Raymond McKinney by 7 pts (HOLD)

Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

Illinois 

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas 
Kansas 4th: 

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)
Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)



Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +2)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Jason Levesque defeats Mike Michaud by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota (Republicans +1)

Minnesota 1st: Tim Walz defeats Randy Demmer by 2 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota 6th: Michele Bachmann defeats Tarryl Clark by 18 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 7th: Collin Peterson defeats Lee Byberg by 9 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota 8th: Chip Cravaack defeats Jim Oberstar by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)
New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7)

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)
New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina (Republicans + 5)
North Carolina 2nd: Renee Elmers defeats Bob Etheridge by 10 pts (PICKUP) 
North Carolina 4th: William Lawson defeats David Price by 2 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 7th: Ilario Pantano defeats Mike McIntyre by 12 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 8th: Harold Johnson defeats Larry Kissell by 15 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 11th: Jeff Miller Defeats Heath Shuler by 8 pts (PICKUP)

North Dakota 

Ohio 


Oklahoma (No Change)


Oregon (Republicans +1)
Oregon 5th: Scott Bruun defeats Kurt Schrader by 4 pts (PICKUP)

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island (Republicans +1)
Rhode Island 1st: John Loughlin defeats David Cicilline by 4 pts (PICKUP)

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)
Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)
Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)



Texas

Utah 

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia (Republicans +1)
West Virginia 1st: David McKinley defeats Mike Oliverio by 7 pts (PICKUP)
West Virginia 3rd: Nick Rahall defeats Spike Maynard by 8 pts (HOLD)

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O’Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Toomey Leads Sestak by 4 pts

Pat ToomeyImage via Wikipedia PA Survey of 750 Likely Voters
October 28, 2010  

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R) 50%
Joe Sestak (D) 46%
Some Other Candidate 1%
Not sure
Rasmussen Reports
3%

Kentucky: Rand Paul Pulling Away From Jack Conway

Rand Paul portrait by Gage SkidmoreImage via Wikipedia Kentucky Survey of 750 Likely Voters
October 27, 2010  

Election 2010: Kentucky Senate
Rand Paul (R) 53%
Jack Conway (D) 41%
Some Other Candidate 2%
Not Sure
Rasmussen Reports
4%

Michigan: Raczkowski Leads Peters by 5 pts

A new poll conducted by Great Lakes Strategies shows Republican 9th District Congressional District Rocky Raczkowski with a 5-percentage point lead (48 percent to 43 percent) over U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-West Bloomfield).

Campaign Spot

New York: 11 Possible Pickups for GOP

New York state’s congressional delegation could see huge changes in the midterm elections. A virtual purge of Democrats is quite possible, with as many as 11 seats changing hands.

New York is traditionally a late-deciding state because of the high cost of media and the late primaries, so these races are coming into focus only now.

The key question: Will the absurd state of the governor’s race depress the “change” vote, or will New Yorkers opt to send a message further down the ticket?

Here are the 11 possible GOP pickups in the House:

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