Obama, Socialists: Right Where McCain Wants Them

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Yesterday’s Gallup shocker (a 2 point gap in the “likely voter” model) is going to have a follow up today if Drudge is right: A Rasmussen poll narrowing the gap to 3 points. Now we know why John McCain and Sarah Palin were both in PA yesterday. The election is tightening across the map as those of us who remember 1976 have been predicting all along. Barack Obama represents a much more radical alternative than Jimmy Carter did in ’76, and Carter’s unusual profile sent voters by the millions towards Gerald Ford in the closing days. The same thing is happening this year as the very well known and very reliable John McCain enters his last big comeback within striking distance and very much on target.
Hugh Hewitt

New Hampshire: McCain Surge Raising Sununu’s Numbers as Well

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“Last Monday, October 20th, Senator Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by six points (41% Sununu/47% Shaheen/5% Blevens). By Thursday, October 23rd, Sununu had narrowed the gap to just three points (43% Sununu/46% Shaheen/5%Blevens). As Election Day draws closer, it is clear that in a tight race, the momentum is on Sununu’s side,” writes Glenn Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.
NOW! Hamphsire

Palin Keeps Attracting Huge Crowds

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Despite freezing weather (literally), 14,000 people in Salem, Virginia (including my family) waited for hours to see Gov. Palin. The event was originally scheduled to be held in the Civic Center but was moved to the football stadium to accommodate the crowd. The weather didn’t bother Palin though…”I love the weather because it reminds me of home,” she said.
Kevin McCullough Blog

Gallup: Presidential Race Down to 2 pts

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The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup’s traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup’s expanded model.

Mississippi: Wicker Lead Swells to 11 Pts

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Mississippi Trends: Wicker vs. Musgrove
Date Wicker Musgrove
10/27/2008 54% 43%
9/30/2008 49% 47%
8/21/2008 47% 42%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen: Obama Lead in Pennsylvania Plummets to 7

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Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama
Date McCain Obama
10/27/2008 46% 53%
10/06/2008 41% 54%
09/28/2008 42% 50%

Taking into account Rasmussen’s oversampling of Democrats and a Bradley effect of 2 or 3 points, this race is now tied.

Reason Why the Polls Are So Contradictory?

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This is why I would urge caution when interpreting all this polling data. We’re talking about disagreements among good pollsters. I take all of these firms seriously whenever they produce new numbers. They are disagreeing with one another in ways that can’t be chalked up to statistical “noise.” That gives me great pause.
Real Clear Politics

Iowa Stunner

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Obama will be back in Iowa to defend a state that everyone had written off as safely Democrat just a few days ago. Poll numbers have fallen drastically in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota over the last week, although Obama still has a tiny lead in each of these states.

PUMAs Confident McCain Will Win Pennsylvania

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Here is specifically what we talked about tonight: never in any of our careers have any of us ever seen members of one party switching sides and voting for the other party as we see in this election with Democrats for McCain. There has never been anything like it. Not even the “Reagan Democrats” who voted for Reagan over Carter, for the simple fact that these “Reagan Democrats” weren’t identified and labeled until AFTER the election.
Hillbuzz (PUMA site)