With No More Use for Cindy Sheehan, Dems Ransack Her Headquarters

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Campaign staffers also note each incident, including today’s early morning incident, has followed closely on the heels of a confrontation with Cindy Sheehan’s opponent Nancy Pelosi. This morning’s incident occurred after an on-air confrontation between the two candidates on KQED’s public affairs program Forum with Michael Krasny on Wednesday morning.

“Each time we confront her, each time we ask her for a debate, each time we gain ground in the polls, something horrible happens,” said Burns. “Once or twice might be a coincidence, but such a consistent correlation is hard to ignore.”

Iowa: Early Voting Close to same pace 2004

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Iowa – early and absentee voting, this year so far: Democrat: 132,882, 50% Republican:76,689, 29% Other: 53,787,20% Iowa – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers: Democrat: 185,115, 48%

Republican: 118,167, 30% Other:86,071, 22%The Campaign Spot

And if Nevada and Florida are a clue, a lot less Democrats will be voting for Obama than voted for Kerry. Iowa looks like a toss up, no wonder all the attention from both campaigns in recent days.

Nevada: Early Voting Shows McCain Probably Takes the State

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Now, yesterday’s headline might have been a little hyperbolic — it’s still possible that massive numbers of Nevada Republicans stay home, or that massive numbers of Nevada Republicans vote for Obama. But right now, a huge advantage in terms of which party shows up for early voting has translated to a surprisingly modest lead for Obama. Unless there is something glaringly off-base about these numbers, then McCain will carry Nevada on Tuesday, as long If pro-McCain Republicans show up and vote.
Campaign Spot

And there’s the caveat: If Republicans show up. If they pull another 2006, they get what they deserve. If it’s like 2004, 2002 or 2000, McCain and America wins.

Electoral College: McCain 299, Obama 239

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1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)…

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
today, Thursday, October 30, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.